A few months ago most predicted the economy would grow, slowly, but continue to grow as opposed to decline. Even before Friday when the Commerce Department revised down its estimate of first-quarter gross domestic product growth to 2.7 percent from the estimated 3 percent, there were other warning signs that recovery was on shaky ground.
Now that the end of the homebuyer tax credit has come home sales are falling rapidly. The number of new weekly claims for unemployment insurance benefits has remained around January levels, rather than declining steadily as analysts had expected. Manufacturing surveys, have shown reduced plans to hire or do capital spending. Real final sales rose at only an 0.8 percent annual rate, that's a known way to measure consumption and investment.
Next month's numbers will be the key, if things continue to decline or do not increase above the current levels, it will be clear this is not just a temporary set back.
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