Forecasting where oil spills are headed is not easy

CNN is reporting that tropical storm Alex is not predicted at this point to directly hit the part of the Gulf of Mexico where the Deepwater Horizon once was, though as it's pointed out, storms do change course. There are other problems though and as the article points out, forecasters are not experienced when it comes to predicting where oil spills will go.

A tropical storm in the Gulf not only has the potential to disrupt BP efforts to collect gushing oil and drill relief wells. It would also complicate efforts to clean up miles of coastline. High winds and seas could distribute the oil over a wider area while storm surges could wash more oil ashore, according to a fact sheet prepared by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Meteorologist Karen Maginnis says the "preferred scenario" actually would be for it to head to northern Florida. That's because the oil spill has been gradually rotating counterclockwise. If the storm heads to the east of it, it would send the oil farther out to sea. If the storm heads more directly towards the central Gulf and Louisiana, it might push the oil toward Florida.
Of course, forecasting where oil spills are headed is not easy.
"We've never been in this situation before," Maginnis said. "We've never seen an oil spill that encompassed the Gulf like this, end up so close to shore."
She noted that the latest models do point to the storm heading to the central Gulf.

Adding to BP's challenges - hurricane

As if things have not been bad enough in the attempts to close off and deal with the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico, it looks as if things could get worse, much worse. According to this Time Magazine article, a tropical depression is forming and if it turns into a tropical storm or even worse, a hurricane, it would create even more problems.

At his press briefing on Friday, Coast Guard Admiral Thad W. Allen that it would take about five days to disconnect the drillship Enterprise—which is processing about 25,000 barrels of oil a day—from the broken well. The Coast Guard would need to carry out the disconnection—and evacuate workers—if forecasts predicted gale force winds in the area. (Gale force winds are 46 miles per hour or greater, which is slightly above the 39 miles per hour wind needed to declare a tropical storm.) A storm of that size would likely force a halt to any surface skimming on the surface of the ocean, or contained burns—two other means to control the growth of the spill, and the two ships drilling relief wells would need to stop and return to port. Between disconnecting the equipment, taking it to port and then reconnecting it over the spill site, Allen estimates that the well could be uncapped for two weeks in the case of a storm. That would mean hundreds of thousands of barrels of oil spilling into the Gulf that would have otherwise been captured. "Of course, we're watching the story very closely," Allen said.

Europe faces longest cold snap in three decades..

There is some irony to this with the way people have assumed global warming means things will get warmer in all areas in reading USA Today:

Northeastern German was particularly hard hit. Wind whipped the snow into yard-high drifts along the Baltic coast, making roads impassable. Radio stations reported that several villages on the Baltic island of Ruegen were completely cut off.

On Fehrmarn, another Baltic island, farmers were being asked to use their farm machinery to help clear the roads, said Volker Kluetmann, an island official.

"The snow is so high that even the snow plows get stuck," Kluetmann said. "It's what you would call a real serious winter — and the winds here are the worst part of it."

In Berlin, even the mice were desperate escape the cold: Swarms of them have taken over the Bundestag, the country's parliament, the daily newspaper Bild reported.

In Britain, cold winds swept in from the north, sending temperatures tumbling to minus 7 degrees Fahrenheit in parts of Scotland and northern England. The country is in the midst of its longest cold snap in three decades, and transport has been disrupted across the country.

For those wondering how global warming makes colder winters? It actually makes sense.

Wouldn't a warmer Earth mean vineyards in Scotland and Mediterranean beach holidays on the UK South Coast? Rising sea levels, floods, heat-waves, hose-pipe bans and malaria - won't these be the main results of our big gamble with the Earth's climate?

Certainly these are all risks. But they are not the only possible scenario. There is an alternative future of frostier winters, later springs and earlier autumns. This is what we might have to face if global warming shuts down the Atlantic heat conveyor - known to oceanographers and climate scientists as the Atlantic thermohaline circulation or THC, and to the rest of us somewhat inaccurately as the Gulf Stream.

Water freezes before hitting the ground...

A friend told me last night on one of the local news channels here in Toledo they threw a cup of water up in the air and it froze before it hit the ground. While I wanted to believe him, I was skeptical, so I headed to YouTube where I found a few people experiencing the same cold spell we are here in Ohio proving that it is true:

In Minnesota:



In Vermont:



I'd try it myself but? I'm not willing to leave my warm house...