Forecasting where oil spills are headed is not easy

CNN is reporting that tropical storm Alex is not predicted at this point to directly hit the part of the Gulf of Mexico where the Deepwater Horizon once was, though as it's pointed out, storms do change course. There are other problems though and as the article points out, forecasters are not experienced when it comes to predicting where oil spills will go.

A tropical storm in the Gulf not only has the potential to disrupt BP efforts to collect gushing oil and drill relief wells. It would also complicate efforts to clean up miles of coastline. High winds and seas could distribute the oil over a wider area while storm surges could wash more oil ashore, according to a fact sheet prepared by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Meteorologist Karen Maginnis says the "preferred scenario" actually would be for it to head to northern Florida. That's because the oil spill has been gradually rotating counterclockwise. If the storm heads to the east of it, it would send the oil farther out to sea. If the storm heads more directly towards the central Gulf and Louisiana, it might push the oil toward Florida.
Of course, forecasting where oil spills are headed is not easy.
"We've never been in this situation before," Maginnis said. "We've never seen an oil spill that encompassed the Gulf like this, end up so close to shore."
She noted that the latest models do point to the storm heading to the central Gulf.