Saturday, October 16, 2010

Trick or treat from the Fed?

A follow up article to the earlier one on the proposed action by the Federal Reserve. Newsweek asks the question -- Has the Fed run out of tricks?. It's a recommended read, part of:

What the Fed is expected to authorize in November is a large purchase of U.S. Treasury bonds with the intent of driving down their interest rates, and rates on other long-term debt securities. It has already done this once. In late 2008 the Fed approved massive bond purchases; these ultimately totaled $1.725 trillion of mortgage-backed securities, U.S. Treasury bonds, and Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac bonds. Bernanke has said the program “made an important contribution” to the economic recovery.
But the measurable effects were small. A Fed study estimated that rates on all 10-year bonds might have dropped by 0.6 percentage points. The decline this time might be less, because starting interest rates are already low (about 4.3 percent for a 30-year mortgage) and the purchases might be smaller. Guesses generally range from $500 billion to $1 trillion.
Economists at Bank of America think new purchases would have “only a modest impact on the economy” but are “better than doing nothing.” A plausible program might cut the unemployment rate by 0.2 percentage points (say, from 9.6 percent to 9.4 percent), says Moody’s Analytics. The stock market would be slightly stronger, leading people to spend more, and a depreciated dollar would aid exports. Indeed, because Bernanke and other Fed officials have signaled a new round of bond buying, financial markets may already reflect some of these effects.

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